国際のETF VIX短期先物指数【1552】の掲示板 〜2015/04/28

July 1st through July 17th:  +21.48%
July 17th through September 28th:  -2.04%
Since 1950, that July 17-September 28 period has covered 3140 trading days, or roughly 12.4 years worth of data. 
That's a lot of data and certainly should be considered a "representative sample" by statisticians.  And it trails the AVERAGE annual return of the S&P 500 by more than 10 percentage points. 
Based on these FACTS, there is no doubt that the market has an historical "tendency" (not a guarantee) to struggle throughout this period, some years much worse than others.
Why else should we be concerned?  Well, let's take a look at the weekly chart of the S&P 500:
Check out the black circles on the chart above.  It shows that over the past decade, we've seen a handful of times where the weekly PPO (percentage price oscillator - similar to the MACD, but expressed in percentages rather than dollars) is stretched to the 3-4 level and the weekly RSI hits 70 (overbought) simultaneously. 
In every case, we've seen selling take us AT LEAST to rising 50 week SMAs over the next 2-3 months.  To be honest, it makes perfect sense. 
A stretched PPO tells us that the market has been running HOT for an extended period of time and the overbought RSI confirms it.  A pullback really is to be expected.
But before you go running for the hills, you should also realize that key sectors/industries are performing exceptionally well on a relative basis, suggesting the longer-term bull market remains intact.
So what does all this mean?  Well, it tells me that short- to intermediate-term risks are rising if you're on the long side. 
I combat that by trading less often and fewer shares.  You can further reduce risk by selling calls or buying put insurance on the S&P 500.
Please don't misunderstand my overall view, however.  I remain BULLISH over the longer-term (6-9 months) but realize the market is likely to continue its recent choppy pattern, perhaps turning more bearish later this summer.